Iwo Cyprian Pogonowski
www.pogonowski.com

On November 12, 2009 the financial press reports, that the creditors of the US, are trying to “Buck Up Dollar” in order to rise competitive prices of American exports and to stop loss of value of their large “reserve currency” accounts. At the same time president Obama is pondering four new game plans for the pacification of Afganistan, none of which spells out American exit strategy. There are vague notions about eventually trying to create out of Afganistan an “American partner” similar to “banana republics” in Latin America.

Present situation is a blowback, resulting from American help given to Muslim fanatics to fight Russian occupation during the Cold War, which kept American arms industries busy, in line with the wishes of the military-industrial complex and the financial elite, which controls American economy by controlling its monetary policy. Unemployment was relatively low. That was long time ago.

Twelve years after the fall of the Soviet Union and the replacement of the Cold War by a “Global War on Terror” in September 2001, this time against Muslim terrorists, who earlier were armed by the US against Red Russian occupation of Afganistan, a country characterized by Lord Curzon as “the graveyard of empires.” American strategists start talking pessimistically about the outcome of the pacification of Afganistan. Some compare war in Afganistan to the war in Vietnam. Majority of Americans are against prolongation of the hopeless struggle in Afganistan.  

In September 2001 president Bush talked about bringing Osama bin Laden to justice “dead or alive.” So far FBI did not include bin Laden among the guilty of the tragedy of 9/11 and many Americans cannot understand, why so far bin Laden and his close associates were not killed or at least arrested. Meanwhile the American global war on terror radicalizes young Muslims who are recruited by terrorists to serve as suicidal bombers or became radical Talibans, etc.

Estimated at least 10% of the value of American aid to Afganistan and and American supplies delivered overland, is paid out by local contractors, in Pakistan and in Afganistan, to the Talban in order to be able to make deliveries need in pacification and in nation building programs.

According to the radio broadcast of the program “Democracy Now” of December 12, 2009, two Afgani origin men, who were previous charged and convicted as drug dealers in the US, are now receiving 360 million dollars per year, paid by the US government, for transporting supplies through Afganistan and Pakistan. This is done with the full knowledge of the US military and other organizations. This situation is described in detail in the current issue of the “Nation” magazine.

Traditional hostility towards foreigners and also now against the puppet regime in Kabul makes
especially difficult, the dealing with an illiterate population, traditionally ready to defend itself against foreigners.  

Afganistan should be evaluated as a part the great game for the domination of Eurasia, in which the crucial fact is that the region of Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea contains over 70% of world’s crude oil reserves and over 40% of the natural gas. That fact plays a major role even at the time when other sources of energy are promoted because of climate change.

Who wins the great game for the domination of Eurasia achieves the domination of the world, according to geopolitical theory. Eurasia is the crucial “heartland of the globe” and at the same time, the scene of a rapid change in the world balance of economic power.

China recently replaced Germany as worlds third largest economy, after the US and Japan. More than half of all the money in the world now is in East Asia. In near future China is expected to have the world’s largest economy and dominate Eurasian land mass and parts of Africa as well as the have strong influence in Latin America, provided that biological or other warfare is not used against China in order to alter this scenario, in the tradition of the “opium wars” launched by the Britsh against China early in the XIX century.

In view of the large reserves of hydrocarbons on the American territory and programs of increasing the use of renewable energy sources, president Obama might conclude, that his program of reform would be served better by bringing in partners for the program of pacification of Central Asia, states that strongly oppose terrorism of radical Muslims such as China, India, and Russia, as well as Iran.

In reality Iran is in the best geopolitical position to help in the effort of weakening AlQaida and the Taliban. It should be remembered, that Iran helped Americans against AlQaida and the Talibans, after the tragedy of 9/11, to be later treated with contempt by the pro-Israeli Bush administration.

Unfortunately the US-Israel axis during the Bush administration turned against Iraq as an imaginary “existential threat to Israel.” Similar accusation is now used against Iran. According to headlines in Jerusalem daily paper Ha’aretz, now Iran constitutes “a nightmare of the possible loss of nuclear monopoly of Israel in the Middle East.” This headline itself constitutes an admission that in fact the existence of Israeli nuclear arsenal constitutes one of the main causes of the destabilization of the Middle East.   

Such a change in strategy, independent of Israeli influence, would require quitting the yearly destabilization program against Iran, funded by the US Congress in Washington. On the other hand the conflict between India and Pakistan, probably excludes any constructive role of India, in bringing peace to Afganistan.

US government is deeply involved in a self-defeating program in Afganistan and does not know how to get out and not to lose the great game for the domination of Eurasia.